The world is like a four-dimensional unpredictable video game. It is difficult to figure out what caused certain events to occur. Even the experts in the field sometimes fail to do that. And yet we try!
The good news is that if you analyze an event as a part of a system that is multiple times smaller than the entirety of the world, you'd be better at figuring out the:
Factors that caused it.
Likelihood of its recurrence.
The role it played to cause other events.
Related: System Thinking — a holistic approach to problem-solving
In this week's essay, I am going to share a simple tool that will help you to unravel these questions. All you need to do is to draw a circle on a blank piece of paper.
The Circle of Cause and Effect
Connection circles are a tool to visualize relationships in a story or system. They help you understand the complexity by seeing in terms of cause-and-effect. If you are a product manager or you aspire to be one, they are an incredibly useful brainstorming tool.
The purpose of any tool in system thinking is to establish order in the wilderness of chaos. Connection Circles do exactly that.
It might not be clear why your product's retention rate is decreasing. Maybe there's a bug that is frustrating your users and they'd rather shut it off than use it.
Or maybe there is something inherently wrong with your product that made it boring to use after a while.
Or maybe it's both.
Most significant events are usually multicausal in nature. Various driving forces cause them to occur. Connection Circles help you to create a network of causes, effects, and the effects of those effects. It is an information-dense tool that tells you a lot about the invisible dynamics of an event.
This is what a connection circle can look like. But how did you create one?
How To Draw A Connection Circle
Start with a circle on a piece of paper.
Next, identify the key elements of the system under examination.
How do you know what’s a key element? It meets the following criteria:
It is important to the changes in the system
Increases or decreases in the system
Can be described by a noun
Write all the elements around the circles (keep it less than 10).
Look for cause and effect
Which elements are directly causing other elements to increase or decrease?
Draw an arrow between these elements.
Draw a "+" or a "–" for the second element in each relationship. Plus sign denotes that the two elements are directly proportional, while the negative sign implies the opposite.
Find all the relationships between the elements. These can be based on data or they can be unproven hypotheses.
Homework For You
Just as you finish reading this article, grab a piece of paper and draw a few Connection Circles. Here are few ideas in case you need them:
Rewatch your favorite movie and do a character analysis of the protagonist. Highlight the key events that lead to the final act. Would be better if you pick a movie with characters that have deep, intricate motives.
Try Batman Vs. Superman—do a character sketch of Batman’s hatred/fear for Superman and vice versa.
Think of a friend who experienced drastic life changes. Try to create a connection circle of their journey.
I had a friend who got married early because her parents were not in good shape and he needed someone to take care of them. So he married her girlfriend at the age of 21. Now the reasons for him getting married were many:
his parents were unhealthy
they were financially incapable to afford a medical nurse
and of course, he always wanted to marry the woman he loved
Review your college or school life, and analyze how certain elements of your academic environment shaped your personality.
Those elements can be anything from getting bullied to getting medals and awards, to having friends and no friends. Scatter around everything that you think was an important part of your life in school or college.
Then try to establish a relationship between those elements. More medals would lead to an increase in your self-esteem. Scoring good marks would mean the same. This is how you can establish a relationship between certain elements.
I appreciate your patience and dedication to read this essay. I am glad that you made it to the end. I hope you learned something new that will improve your problem-solving skills and will help you to think better.
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