9 Cognitive Biases That Make You Think Irrationally
Ep#2: Cognitive Biases
The human brain is a complex organ. It has more neural networks than there are stars in the universe. Even after having an intensely sophisticated architecture and lightning-fast processing power, it is not a reliable tool to make long-term decisions.
Cognitive Biases are mental shortcuts that help you make quick decisions in moments of uncertainty. They constitute the involuntary, unintentional thinking process. Cognitive Biases create a pattern for your brain, preventing it from thoughts that go against previously established rules and information.
Unlike popular belief, our Cognitive Biases are not purely evil. They serve a very important function—to help us think quickly. Fast thinking is not ideal but under certain circumstances, it is exactly what we need for our survival. Here’s a brilliant essay for you that changed my perception about cognitive biases—Smart Heuristics.
However, cognitive biases can be harmful as they cause you to focus on some kind of information while overlooking other kinds. You make uninformed decisions because your brain gives the former more weight than the latter. Even after you have access to almost all the information in the world you turn a blind eye for information that goes against the nature of your cognitive biases.
In this essay, we will discuss the 9 most common cognitive biases that destroy our decision-making ability and what you can do to prevent that. Let’s go!
1. Dunning-Krugger Effect
The amount of information available in this world is infinite, there is no way you can have it all. Consider this for an instance, the IDC claims that world data is about 44 Zettabytes, one zettabyte is equivalent to a trillion gigabytes. Just imagine that.
Your awareness is extremely limited and sometimes you are unaware of your lack of awareness, you assume to have all the knowledge about a particular thing and make stupid decisions out of your over-confidence. This is the Dunning-Kruger effect, and the only way to avoid it is to get aware of your unawareness, to spot the difference between your assumptions and your knowledge.
2. Confirmation Bias
Humans have a bad habit of being faithful to their established beliefs that they ignore any new information that goes against it. We all favor ideas that conform to our pre-existing beliefs.
Most political arguments can find their roots in confirmation bias. People always favor the information that supports the image of their political leader, but they get extremely skeptical of information that goes against it.
Our exaggerated skepticism for information that challenges our pre-existing beliefs and an open-minded submission toward the information that favors them is problematic. They prevent us from testing our beliefs and leave no space for the formation of new, more well-informed beliefs.
3. Self-Serving Bias
Ever fail an exam because your teacher hates you? Ever go in the following week and ace the next one because you studied extra hard despite that teacher? Congratulations, you’ve engaged the self-serving bias!
We attribute successes and positive outcomes to our doing, basking in our own glory when things go right; but, when we face failure and negative outcomes, we tend to attribute these events to other people or contextual factors outside ourselves.
4. The Curse of Knowledge
Okay, so this one’s a really interesting bias. Quite similar to the False Consensus Effect, once you truly understand a new piece of information, that piece of information is readily available to you and often becomes seemingly obvious.
You pretty soon forget that there was even a time when you were unaware of that information, and so you start assuming that everyone else also knows that information— this is the curse of knowledge.
5. Optimism/Pessimism Bias
As you probably guessed from the name, we tend to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes, particularly if we are in good humor, and to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes if we are feeling down or have a pessimistic attitude.
In either the case of optimism or pessimism, be aware that emotions can make you think irrationally.
6. Sunk Cost Fallacy
Sunk cost fallacy is related to how we think about winning, losing, and ‘breaking even’. We hate to lose, so we play the game a little longer to cover up an incurred loss, to make a small profit, or to at least break even. Playing a game for a longer duration doesn’t really guarantee you a win, chances are that you just end up inflating your initial losses.
Our aversion to losing (Kahneman, 2011) makes us irrationally cling to the idea of ‘regaining’, even though it has already been lost. In gambling it is known as chasing the pot – when we make a bet and chase after it, perhaps making another bet to recoup the original (and hopefully more) even though, rationally, we should consider the initial bet as out-and-out lost.
7. Conformity Bias
Conformity Bias is the tendency of people to behave like those around them rather than using their own personal judgment. It can block your cognitive independence, which results in groupthink. Our conformity bias is equally likely to make us do good and bad things.
Studies have shown that people act in a pro-social manner, such as contributing to charity, or conserving water, if they see or hear that others are doing it too.
But it can also lead to self-censorship and loss of independent thought. Popularity is rarely synonymous with quality. The majority of the White Americans were racists in the 1900s, and it took the world centuries to realize what a dehumanizing evil it was. Most socially devastating acts were committed by groups in which people used to think all alike. Sometimes, you should try to think outside the group.
8. Framing Bias
When your decision-making abilities get influenced by the way data is presented rather than the data itself, you allow Framing Bias to hijack your brain. It happens when you read a research paper and encounter a bunch of technical jargon, this makes you assume the academic superiority of that paper without questioning the underlying science and facts.
We all use and encounter framing bias in our professional lives. When your colleague is giving a presentation and he starts throwing a bunch of technical jargon he is trying to trigger the framing bias. A piece of data when presented in a boring-looking table is less convincing than the same data being presented on a line graph or a pie chart. When suffering from framing bias, look for substance, not the aesthetic or structure.
9. Authority Bias
Humans have a tendency to follow a leader, it saves efforts—both cognitive and physical. It’s our authority bias that makes us say “trust the experts”. Now, obviously, there is nothing wrong with trusting someone more knowledgeable than you, but doing so all the time makes you susceptible to fake news and false claims. Sometimes you may even believe in the opinion of an expert that is unrelated to his domain of expertise.
Authority bias is the tendency to attribute greater accuracy to the opinion of an authority figure (unrelated to its content) and be more influenced by that opinion. The only way to avoid authority bias to cloud your thinking is by questioning the ideas of authority figures you idealize. Unfortunately, we do exactly the opposite, getting offended every time someone criticizes our favorite influencer’s opinion.
The ultimate way to avoid all the cognitive biases is to develop a deep sense of self-awareness. Be an observer of your daily thoughts, understand how you think. You cannot get rid of your cognitive biases, you can only be aware of them.
Along with self-awareness, some mental models help you to do that as well, which we will discuss in the coming episodes of the critical thinking series.
I appreciate your patience and dedication to read this essay. I am glad you made it through the end. I hope you now have a better understanding of cognitive biases and how you can avoid them. In the following essays, I will share some mental models that will help you to deal with them.
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